NFL Week 12 Pick ‘Em

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As Thanksgiving approaches, I started to understand what I am truly thankful for. My health and the health of my loved ones, having a job I love and co-workers I admire, all the lessons I’ve learned throughout my 27 years of existence, and being back in the win column after a couple of poor judgements calls the last couple of weeks. It would almost be perfect but it seems my absence from the house of the Lord Sunday incurred consequences as my Titans fell to Houston in a downpour. That’s not a rain pun, that’s describing the 4 interceptions Tannehill threw. 

As the scripture protested, the Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away so while I had to endure a brutal game, I was able to watch football for the first time in what seemed like a millennium. All those three hour drives early Sunday mornings and evenings took away from my NFL viewership so I am once again thankful to see how these teams are playing as the season hits the tipping point.

There is something to be said about seeing the games live as opposed to reading stat lines and watching highlights after the fact. You can pick up on the energy levels of the players, the coach’s play calling and game management savvy, and which teams outright want it more.

 I watched the Ravens battle adversity on the road, the Colts dismantle a top-ranked defense, Taylor Heinicke prove he is the guy in Washington in spite of Cam’s miraculous homecoming, and an Eagles team that is getting hot at the perfect time. Kyle Brandt pointed it out today on Good Morning Football, Philadelphia doesn’t have to get on a plane for the rest of the season. That’s a flex!

For myself, going into Week 12, I am an astounding 101-63-1. This blows my mind after going 6-8 in Week 9 coupled with a poor 5-8-1in Week 10. Now that we’ve reached make-it-or-break season and being able to observe these teams in action for the first time since Week 5, I too feel like the Philadelphia Eagles…time to take off!!! 

So in honor of the flying wild turkey I saw earlier this year, let’s get started with the Thanksgiving festivities.

 

Bears take care of Lions.

Why?

The Red Rifle is locked and loaded! Andy Dalton will get the starting nod this week with Justin Fields ailing with a rib injury. Now there are reports saying this will be Matt Nagy’s last game so this Chicago performance will show how the truly feel about their leading man. I am of the belief that it is time for the Bears to move on so if they came out a tad bit lackluster, I wouldn’t be shocked. 

I’m rolling with the Windy City because their defense is still playing well without Khalil Mack. I also still love me some Andy Dalton so I want to see him do well. 

Full Disclaimer here: This team in my humble opinion only has two more chances to corral a win this season and this is one of them. They play the Atlanta Falcons the day after Christmas and I do believe they will win one game this season. Moral of this story is I am picking the Bears to win but betting the Lions +3.5. I’m all about my win-wins now.

 

Courtesy of Chicago Sun Times

 

Dallas rebounds versus Las Vegas lol

Why?

My aforementioned “lol” is because I think it would be hilarious to watch Dallas lose. They will already be without Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb is recuperating from a concussion. The media is so wishy-washy that a loss here would probably have them second guessing if Dallas will even make the playoffs at all with Philadelphia and Washington surging late. There’s nothing I enjoy more than the hypocrisy of so-called “experts”.

Even if Dallas comes into this game-shorthanded, they still employ two top RBs in Zeke Elliot and Tony Pollard along with a stingy defense led by rookie Micah Parsons. Las Vegas has hit that point where they can’t seem to stitch four quarters together and I have no confidence they figure it out in such a short amount of time. After what Joe Mixon and Cincinnati did to them in their own building, going down to Arlington right after seems almost unfair. 

I picked them to beat Kansas City just two weeks ago, this league is absolutely brutal.

 

Buffalo survives must-win bout against New Orleans.

Why?

Man how the mighty has fallen. The AFC South has absolutely feasted on this squad over the last 5 weeks. First a 4th and Goal stuff versus The Boys, then a 6-9 shell shocker against the other Josh Allen down in Jacksonville, then a welcome to superstardom performance courtesy of Jonathan Taylor and the Indianapolis Colts. I always attempt to warn naïve fans that this division has talent and to not underestimate them in the slightest. Now Buffalo fans truly understand why I pray so hard in division games.

This week they travel to New Orleans and play a hurt Saints squad. If the Gods show fortune upon them, both Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram will be unavailable. Even so, that is no sure thing as I’ve seen this team look like they were about to be blown out for two straight weeks only to rally and score like 3 or 4 TDs in the final quarter. Trevor Siemian is becoming more comfortable in this offense and the defense is still great, but I believe there’s too many injuries to overcome a Buffalo team that is now a 6 seed in the AFC. 

 

Courtesy of Bills Wire

 

On to Sunday where the real games begin!

 

Cincinnati improves to 7-4

Why?

This game might be the first playoff game of the year. In a supremely close AFC North with so many division games to still be played, this game is crucial. Pittsburgh and more impressively Big Ben has been competitive all year and I’m almost, not quite, but ALMOST ready to give him some props. This will be a telling game to see if the Steelers can actually compete in this loaded conference. The Bengals are playing fast on offense combined with a bend, don’t break defense. In my estimation, whichever team can establish the run first wins.

I’m going with Cincinnati because they have Joe Mixon playing lights out and still can send Samaje Perine to spell him when needed. Joe Burrow > Ben Roethlisberger. Lastly, this receiving core has not been contained all season. Pittsburgh’s only prayer is the return of, well pretty much everyone on defense and even then the chances are slim. If they do all return though, Steelers +4.5 isn’t a bad wager at all.

 

Bucs over Colts

Why?

This one is tricky folks. Not my trickiest, but pretty darn close. Just looking at this matchup, I can see a million different scenarios of how this game plays out. However, the most likely one is a defensive struggle for both teams. Vita Vea is looking like he’s good to go for Tampa which means bad news for Jonathan Taylor fantasy owners. Everyone knows you don’t run on the Buccaneers and with Quentin Nelson leaving Sunday’s win with an ankle injury, it’s No Bueno.

I’m taking the Tompa Bay Bucs for that reason exclusively, Tom Brady, The G.O.A.T is still playing at an elite level and I trust him with the security of the football immensely more than Carson Wentz. With Gronk back and playing like he never left and the potential return of Antonio Brown, The Colts don’t look to have the manpower to overcome this juggernaut. I just hope Tampa is ready, the Colts compete for four quarters. Much Respect.

 

Titans find a way in New England.

Why?

I’m not gonna lie, I felt weary all last week. I trusted our defense to do its job, but knew that the Houston defense wasn’t a pushover. David Culley comes from Baltimore and if you are an adept NFL fan, you know how they get down. Also former Titan CB Desmond King had 2 interceptions and all I could say was, that boy nice. The sloppy rain only made things resolute and I watched us fall as well as AJ Brown leave with injury. *hard, heavy sigh*

Now I was somewhat concerned coming into this game but then I saw Patriot LB Matthew Judon slander Mac & Cheese RIGHT before Thanksgiving and my worry immediately dissipated. Anyone with sense knows you absolutely, positively, NEVER slander Macaroni & Cheese. It’s the one Thanksgiving Taboo. So that coupled with a wake up loss to Houston is why I have faith Vrabel will have these men ready to battle.

An underrated but needed injury return is FB Khari Blasingame. He is responsible for opening up those rushing lanes and it seems Tennessee is going all in on D’Onta Foreman after the release of Adrian Peterson. I concur as Foreman has been running hard and catching screens like a professional. There may be a slew of other returns including MLB’s David Long and Rashaan Evans, CB Jack-rabbit Jenkins (great name), RB Jeremy McNichols and G Nate Davis. If AJ is able to suit up, I have no doubt we get this W. Keep us in your prayers, Amen.

 

Courtesy of The Tennessean

 

Panthers subdue Dolphins.

Why?

Don’t let the Panther’s loss Sunday derail your confidence, Taylor Heinicke is the truth. I wish me and my cousin Elijah were on speaking terms so I could rub it in his face but I suppose it wouldn’t be sincere because I love Cam Newton just as much as he does. The Panthers have a complete team and will absolutely destroy the Dolphins on Sunday. 

Tua Tagovailoa, whose name I can now spell without checking, has been playing much better after his return from injury. I also see Miami remembered they have a defense so that’s minorly comforting as I was a staunch believer in them at the start of the season. The reason I say they will get demolished is because I believe it’s all a façade. Two of their last three wins have come against the Texans and Jets and their Baltimore win, while impressive, isn’t changing my mind.

They haven’t played a team of Carolina’s caliber since Week 5 (Sorry Buffalo, I’d pick Carolina over you guys too), and Carolina -1.5 is the easiest pick of the week for me. Maybe next year Miami, maybe next year. 

 

Eagles and Giants battle fiercely, but Jalen Hurts continues his domination.

Why?

I never comprehended why people doubted Jalen Hurts. All the man ever did was perform wherever he played. He is the only Alabama QB I respect and faith in. Now that I think about it, He’s the only Alabama QB I’ve ever wanted to do well also. That is huge. So to see him prospering brings me a lot of joy and I don’t think New York is going to play spoiler just yet. 

    Now I absolutely love the firing of Jason Garrett. I didn’t understand why he got the job in the first place after the disaster in Dallas. Freddie Kitchens is a mild improvement so I’m intrigued to see what this new New York offense looks like. They have so much talent that it shouldn’t be difficult to conjure some semblance of cohesiveness. However, Philly is running the football, playing lights out on defense, and controlling the clock. All bad news for a team in midst of a transition. Eagles by 7.

The last two noon games are ugly, ugly. Therefore, I will leave it up to chance.

 

Jaguars take down Falcons.

Why?

I legitly flipped a coin and it said Jags. This Atlanta team, while I love the coaching, just isn’t it this year. I listened to them get decimated by New England last week on 95.9 The Tiger. What was most telling is how they finished the game. They not only rolled over, they threw THREE interceptions in the span of FOUR minutes. Not just Matt Ryan, but both Josh Rosen and Felipe Franks.

I resorted to the coin out of respect for Matt Ryan, Arthur Smith, and Dean Pees. I still have so much love for them in my heart it was clouding my judgement. Perhaps Cordarelle Patterson can return and ignite this team to victory as Vegas seems to think so. Even now I want to change my mind but I will stick with the coin. I don’t understand it, but watching Atlanta suck actually hurts me a little.

 

Houston wins again.

Why?

Zach Wilson looks like he is ready to roll for a Jets team trying to stay competitive. I will admit I was wrong about Joe Flacco and thought he’d perform much better than he did. I was about to flip a coin for this game and then it dawned on me that I actually watched these teams play and Houston had way more heart than New York. I don’t know how, but when the clock hits 0:00, Houston will have more points on the scoreboard. 

I will smile knowing that one of the two teams that beat the Titans this year is about to lose the entire week. Titans – Cardinals Super Bowl! Now for the afternoon main event!

 

Courtesy of Morry Gash/AP

 

Rams beat Packers

Why?

Sorry Ricky, Aaron Rodgers shouldn’t be talking about that toe injury. The Rams are coming off a bye while the Packers are coming off a tough loss to Minnesota. Both teams know what’s at stake as they both have losses to Arizona and only one of them has a chance at redemption. If Aaron Jones were available, maybe things go a bit differently but that’s not the case. With LT David Bakhtiari not ready to return and losing LG/LT Elgton Jenkins for the year, it’s looking like a long road ahead for A-Rod.

Green Bay’s defense is their saving grace and Robert woods’ absence is a huge help, but I just can’t see it. Once again praying for everyone’s health and that this game is over quickly.

 

Vikings shock 49ers!

Why?

Kirk Cousins is quietly having an MVP caliber year. He has been lighting defenses up and I’m not talking about any pushover defenses either. While San Francisco’s last few games have been impressive, something doesn’t feel right. This game will be the benchmark for what both these teams are and the one I’m most excited to see outside Titans-Patriots for obvious bias reasons.

The offensive power of this Minnesota is starting to give teams fits and I’m intrigued to see the gameplan Kyle Shanahan comes in with to try and slow them down. We all know he wants to run the football but with the quick strike ability of Minnesota along with how much Zimmer hates to lets team run, what will the counter-move be? This will be a matchup of epic proportions both on and off the field. Get ready! Vikings +2.5, another easy choice.

 

These last two games wrap up with two divisional showdowns that will have everyone shook.

 

Broncos over Chargers.

Why?

This is the continuation of my Teddy Bridgewater love. I started to type the Chargers but then something inside said, “don’t hurt yourself.” While I think Justin Herbert is a dawg and that this Chargers team is scary, I also think Denver is underrated and equipped to take them down. I missed a lot of the Sunday night showdown between Pittsburgh and Los Angeles but if Big Ben can come back on this Chargers team, Teddy can hold a lead over them while Gordon and Williams grind away the clock. 

This time of the year, as evidenced last week in Tennessee, division rivalries are truly 50/50 and I rather go down with my heart than my head. A lesson I failed once but won’t fail again.

 

Courtesy of PFF

 

Case Keenum decides the outcome for Sunday Night

Why?

It’s time to sit Baker down. He is clearly not healthy and Baltimore is not Detroit. The Browns designated Jack Conklin and Kareem Hunt to return and that’s just in time to salvage their playoff hopes. This is the second playoff game as this AFC North is a scrap of epic proportions. Lamar Jackson looks like he will return to this game and if Baker is out there, I’m going to pick Baltimore easily.

   Now if Case, Kareem, and Jack are all in attendance, all bets are off. I have never wavered on this Browns unit and won’t start just because of the QB. I watched Keenum and Stefanski work magic in Minnesota (they literally call it a miracle) so I have faith they can do so with a much better team in Cleveland. Stay tuned @TheDenChillin on Twitter to see what perspires as Sunday approaches. Fates will be decided.

 

The week ends with a matchup of two teams heading in opposite directions. The result?

 

I’m rolling with Russell one last time.

Why?

This is to continue my Taylor Heinicke hype train. If he is able to take down Brady, Cam, and Russell in consecutive weeks, I’m picking Washington as easily as I do Tennessee. Even with a banged up D line and secondary, Riverboat Ron has these boys playing together. On the other hand, Russell has been struggling and knows this is it.

I’m going with the Seahawks strictly off the strength that it’s now or never for them. They are the wild animal backed into the corner and Russell Wilson comes to play when all bets are off. 

I am so close to being certain about each pick that this week will be my introduction to glory. I truly cannot wait for these results. Thanks to all my readers and your support because that’s what drives me to be great. Thanks also to Jovan Cutler and Tiger Communications for providing a platform and spiffy graphics to make me look professional. Make sure y’all have that Tiger Communications App for all our content and promotions that’s on the way.

     A Happy Thanksgiving to everyone out there. Eat good, Praise God, and pray for the Titans!

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