Oh to be humbled.
I absolutely hate that word and the idea it portrays but life has a way of putting you in your place regardless of how one feels. Through twelve weeks, I’ve used a bevy of tactics to try and predict the outcomes of these matchups. Analytics, injury reports, listening to “experts”, following my gut, and even utilizing the vindictive portion of my character.
Yet, the moment that I was put in my place is when I went against my guy Aaron Rodgers. I’ve only picked against the Packers once this season and I had to hear about it from my best friend. He is a diehard Packers fan and we both admire the greatness that Rodgers brings to the game. Although he understood seeing as that was the Covid game that sapped all their WRs availability. This go-round, I believed that the rested Rams and the massacred Green Bay O-line would spell the demise of said greatness. I was sorely mistaken.
The reason this hurt, besides the destruction of my Titans in New England, was because I betrayed myself to make that pick. People are always telling me I’m too emotional and I let those emotions cloud my judgement. Last week my resolve floundered and I believed them. There is no pain quite like letting yourself down because of what others told you. That is why I’m thankful my guy Ricky clowned me on the Gram because I deserved it. It set me right and “humbled” my wayward spirit.
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote that I would be looking at the season as if it was Week 1 all over again and failed to do so. I still let my biases leak into my writing, Prime example is my visceral disappointment in the Miami Dolphins. They are playing like how I imagined they would all season and instead of accepting that as truth, I continued to slander them based on their first five weeks. That, lady and gentlemen, is Pride. Another Kendrick song which states, “Love’s gonna get you killed, but Pride’s gonna be the death of you, and you, and ME!”
I sometimes dabble with Matthew Berry’s Love/Hate article to get some ideas and he always starts off with some long story. I thought it dumb but in my current state, here I go.
Here in Auburn, they call it the “Loveliest Village on the Plains.” That resonated with me the moment I heard it because it references my favorite anime that no one has heard of called Forest of Piano. It centers on a young man from Japan named Kai Ichinose whose mom is a prostitute. He gets bullied at school and has no friends until a new student transfers in. This child named Shuhei Amamiya has aspirations to be the best child pianist in all of Japan. This of course is easy bait for him to be bullied as well. I won’t go into the details but let’s just say bullying in Japan is pretty weird.
The point of all this is that Kai comes to Shuhei’s rescue because he understands what he’s going through. Not only that, but Kai has a secret of his own, the Piano of the Forest. This piano that was thrown away and magically only lets him play it. Obviously Shuhei doesn’t believe him until he sees it for himself. Not only will it only let Kai play it, this boy Ichinose is RAW! Shuhei can’t believe it and that’s when they form another bond, love of playing the piano.
Fast forward a little bit, their music teacher finds out from Shuhei about the magic piano and Kai’s skills. Turns out the reason only Kai can play it is because it was specially made for an extremely powerful professional pianist which was said teacher. He suffered a horrible car accident and couldn’t play anymore so he discarded the painful memory. He finds Kai playing the song he wrote one night on the piano and the rest is for you to see yourself. The reason I bring all this up is both personal and extraordinary.
Personally, the show is a story about a desolate youth who didn’t believe he had a future and found a tiny bit of joy, the one thing that was all his. That’s me growing up and my love for football. The more incredible thing is that “Loveliest Village on the Plains” part. Not only did I have to witness my Titans lose this weekend, I had to watch the crushing defeat of Auburn by Alabama when we were in control the whole game.
In Forest of Piano, the entire premise is about Classical Pianist Frederic Chopin. Basically it explores his life through his compositions. Chopin was born and raised in Poland also known as “The Plains”. Although Kai wasn’t raised in Poland on the Plains, he understood the spirit of Chopin through playing his music and that is in direct correlation with my relationship in Auburn. I may not have been raised here, but through football and the tragedy that led me to be here today, I understand the spirit of what it means to be a Tiger. (Shoutout South High).
So this week, the resource I’m choosing is Respect. I’m just a sports journalist writing about men who’ve trained their entire lives to hone their mind, bodies, and craft to reach the highest level of competition. I believe most of these reporters forget this and I won’t be one of them. That’s what being humbled has shown me, that I won’t accomplish my objectives until I show gratitude for being able to critique individuals who have done what I’ve only dreamed…That is to get that perfect week and finally hit a parlay.
Thank you for listening to my revelation soliloquy. Now let’s get down to business.
Cowboys wrangle Saints.
Why?
Easy, Taysom Hill is starting at QB. I have no idea the obsession Sean Payton and the New Orleans organization have with this man. He’s a TE on his best day and that’s not a bad thing. This team has been decimated with injury and need on those too. Now, to be fair, I wouldn’t have picked them to win even if Trevor Siemian remained under center but this makes it all too easy. It’s also looking like Alvin Kamara will miss his 4th straight game and with Amari Cooper returning to the lineup, I expect a bounce back from Dallas after hilariously choking on Thanksgiving.
Sunday, Sunday, Sunday, let the real showdowns begin!
Colts decimate Texans.
Why?
Have you watched this Indianapolis team? They have been on a rampage offensively as of late. Jonathan Taylor has taken the mantle of best RB in the league thanks to the injuries around the league (miss you King Henry). They took the reigning Super Bowl champs and G.O.A.T Brady down to the wire. The Texans are coming off a surprising loss to the Jets and caught the bad end of the rebound stick. The Colts are -9.5 favorites and I am placing my bet now because it should be more than that. I suggest you all do the same.
Minnesota plays down to Detroit level and squeezes out a victory.
Why?
This Vikings team is a true conundrum. Kirk Cousins is having a spectacular season and no one has a clue. Honestly, the letdown has been the defense as Minnesota has had to score buku points in order to stay competitive in games. They had a huge upset against the NFC North leading Packers and couldn’t go out and subdue the 49ers the week after. So my expectation here is that we will see some quality football out of Detroit and Minnesota will again have to go out and score 28+ points to secure a should-be easy victory.
Both squads are without their starting RBs but Minnesota has a secret weapon in Kene Nwangwu. He has already shown he is an explosive play waiting to happen and Coach Zimmer has taken notice stating he will be involved in the offense this week. Jamaal Williams for Detroit is no pushover either so whomever can get their run game going early will have first mover’s advantage for the photo finish on the horizon.
Atlanta give Tompa Bay a run for their money, but Brady’s defense comes to the rescue.
Why?
It’s a tale of two teams when Cordarrelle Patterson is in the lineup. I would say outside the QB positions and Derrick Henry, no one player has had such a decided impact on their team’s performance this season. He is the engine that makes that offense go and Head Coach Arthur Smith is fully aware of that. He said Patterson is so versatile he may put in on the depth chart as safety and guess what, 3rd string safety – Cordarrelle Patterson.
Atlanta may end up needing his services because Playoff Lenny has arrived early this year. He had 17 rushes for 100 yards and 3 TDs to go along with 7 catches for 31 yards and another TD to stave off a surging Colts squad last week. I see no resistance coming from Atlanta this week if a vaulted Indianapolis defense couldn’t contain mans. The Falcons best chance may be a shootout where one or two defensive stops/turnovers decide the outcome but I predict it will be Tampa’s defense getting the job done in that department. Did you see Antoine Winfield Jr’s INT on 6’4 Michael Pittman Jr. last week? Insane
Arizona Cardinals have a field day in Chicago welcoming back Kyler and DeAndre. (potentially)
Why?
Now in all fairness I’ve been wrong for like two weeks about this return but this feels like the time has finally come. They’ve both been out since Week 9 but Arizona is coming off a bye and both are practicing this week. This Cardinals team has been the most consistent all season despite injuries at every offensive position group. Colt McCoy and James Connor stepped right in and haven’t missed a beat. They’ve gone 2-1 over the stretch but beat division foes San Francisco and Seattle in the process.
Chicago on the other hand is barely hanging on by a thread. They barely took down a winless Detroit team last week and all the Chicago sports news cycles are talking about is Matt Nagy’s inevitable exodus. I have to commend this Chicago defense for maintaining their pedigree despite the inept offensive scheme they deployed all season. This is a bad matchup and if I’m correct this dynamic duo returns, then this one may be over by half. There is a sliver of hope as Justin Fields and Allen Robinson are labeled as questionable. I am always down for a random rookie QB explosion but I’m not holding my breath.
Eagles bounce back against Intriguing Jets.
Why?
As a former O-lineman, I admire what this Philly line has been doing all season. They were notoriously banged up all last year but this year they have shown what they can do when they’re all healthy and playing together. However, it seems that an injury bug has made its way to this Eagle RB room as the carousel continues to turn. Miles Sanders goes down, then so does Kenneth Gainwell. Jordan Howard and Boston Scott step up then down goes Howard just as Sanders returns. Next week, Sanders is hurt again but Howard might be able to make his return. Keeping up is a headache honestly.
Then there’s the Jalen Reagor drops that doomed this team last week versus the Giants. The storyline of Reagor being drafted before Justin Jefferson continues to haunt the Philly faithful. Luckily, the Jets are just what the doctor ordered. Jalen Hurts is good to go after suffering a mild ankle injury last week. I’m going with Philly because their defense is still playing exceptionally and their O line is plowing people left and right. Hurts won’t throw another 3 interceptions and look for Philly to get some other WRs involved this week (looking at you Quez Watkins).
Now I say the Jets are intriguing because they continue to make games close. Philadelphia better end them early because this is not a team you want sniffing around late in the 4th. They have a rookie QB who has no qualms about letting it fly. INT be damned.
The last two noon games are quite difficult. I will decide them using my gambling mind.
Dolphins scrap by Giants.
Why?
This team has been the bane of my NFL season. I can’t explain why I am so attached to them but they’ve hurt me time and time again. However, last week versus Carolina, they showed me that they are not to be doubted any longer. Tua carved up a very good Carolina defense and that Miami defense tortured Cam all the way to the bench. They played perhaps their most complete game of the season and showed no signs of slowing down. The acquisition of Phillip Lindsey is already paying dividends as he is a shifty alternative to back up Myles Gaskin.
The Giants are 1-0 with Jason Garrett but it was their defense that put the work in last week holding Philly to just 7 points. I’m interested to see how they matchup with this Miami team and the speed they employ. Miami might be getting back Devante Parker this week as well so that’s a huge red zone threat that New York has to contend with. Danny Dimes is dealing with a neck injury and Coach Judge is playing it close to the chest whether he will suit up Sunday or not.
As I stated earlier, I’m choosing with Respect and Miami has earned mine back. That’s all I will say for now.
Last 12pm game should be this week’s most exciting. Who wins?
I’m going Burrow over Herbert.
Why?
This is purely emotional. In a game I can’t not see being a shootout, I gotta go with Burrow. He has shown me that when it comes down to needing a big play to win a game, he makes the play. My only hesitation is Justin Herbert and how well he’s been playing as of late. Austin Ekeler is getting the job done his way as well. It most likely will come down to whoever makes less mistakes and possesses the ball last. The line as of today is Chargers +3.5 and I wish at this moment this was about the spread but it isn’t, it’s straight 50/50.
The Bengals defense has been playing well and the Chargers just got handled by Javonte and Melvin Gordon but while I don’t believe the Bengals D is on the same level as Denver’s, Joe Mixon is putting in work. The Bengals should be able to control the clock and keep Herbert on the sideline. I expect a close one but the Bengals have the momentum and in the NFL, that’s a huge factor.
On to the 3pm slate of games that have some easy calls and tough divisional matchups. Let’s start with the simple calls and make our way down the rabbit hole/
Rams beat Jags.
Why?
I can’t imagine this game ends any other way. I picked the Jags last week against a very vulnerable Falcons team based on a coin flip and they still couldn’t pull it off. The Rams went 0-3 during the month of November and are hungry for redemption. Jacksonville may be on the receiving end of an upset Rams offensive explosion and while they have an upper class pass rush, their offense has been a straight liability for the last two months.
Their only hope is a James Robinson led assault after losing their do-it-all ace Jamal Agnew for the season. Trevor Lawrence has faded into the recesses of NFL QB talk as he hasn’t been able to stop turning over the ball and unable to lead his offense to much needed scoring drives. I say it would be a moral victory if the Jags cover +13.5.
The Washington Football Team continues their heroic run in Las Vegas!
Why?
Taylor Heinicke is the TRUTH! He has this team rolling, Riverboat Ron hyped, and this team looking for a playoff berth for the second straight year. Washington is only 2 games behind Dallas with a whopping FIVE divisional games left to play. That includes two games versus those Cowboys starting next week. I was supremely impressed with Derek Carr last week but I’m not picking against Taylor. He has the mentality of a winner and his team fully trusts his ability.
Now for the toughies.
Baltimore and Pittsburgh have an old-school AFC North slugfest, but Lamar is too much.
Why?
These two teams have so much history of brutal matchups based on their defensive showdowns. The Ed Reed, Ray Lewis, Troy Polomalu, James Harrision, Haloti Ngata, Casey Hampton years were some of the best football any fan could ask for. And this Sunday, I foresee something similar. The Ravens defense won them the Game last week versus Cleveland while the Steelers defense has something to prove after what the Bengals did to them in that 10-41 drubbing.
Lamar and Big Ben have both been struggling but this game will pretty much decide the year for Pittsburgh. I’m going with Baltimore because I have no faith in Big Ben. Lamar could turn it on at any moment and the resiliency this Ravens team has shown all year is astounding. I think this where the Steelers front office sees it’s time to start evaluating for the future at the QB position. They had a phenomenal run but all things end eventually.
DangeRuss returns!
Why?
Call me naïve, but I’m going with my guy!
I started to go with the 49ers but they will be without Deebo Samuel. However the injury that swayed my decision completely is LB Fred Warner. He is the unsung hero of this 49ers defense and will be sorely missed in the middle of the field. Despite an average performance last week, Wilson had his team in position to go to OT late. So I will do the same thing here with San Francisco that I did last week with Heinicke and the Football Team. If they can plunge the Seahawks this week in Seattle, they have my complete respect.
Now for the Sunday night divisional showdown with huge AFC West implications!
Chiefs overcome Denver’s surge!
Why?
Here I picking Kansas City because I want to be wrong. I’ve accepted in order to capture that ever elusive perfect week, I’ll need to be a bit lucky. Picking Kansas City here is the easy choice and you can’t go against the grain based on what you want. I actually just went back and changed my Cincinnati/ Los Angeles pick based on the same reasoning. Deep down, although I don’t quite understand it, I have more faith in Herbert than Burrow. But this is a team game and at this juncture, The Bengals have a better arsenal of players than the Chargers.
Same logic here for the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes is a better QB than Teddy Bridgewater and while the Broncos may have more depth of talent the Chiefs own top end playmakers. If the Chargers and Broncos end up winning this week, that’s all the validation I’ll need that I have what it takes. Those picks along with my undying belief in Russell, some would call my weakness so let’s find out. It’s the old adage – Scheme over Team but this week, I’ll be aboard the Team Train.
Week 13 ends with one last divisional matchup that has the largest effect on playoff seeding. The AFC East will never be the same after this one.
Bills outlast Patriots.
Why?
Josh Allen cannot lose to Mac Jones. I don’t think I could take the headlines and Mac Jones butt-kissing if that were to happen. This Patriots defense is intimidating but oddly enough, I believe the Bills losing their best defensive player will light a fire under this offense. They know that they have to compensate after losing a guy like Tre’Davious White for the season. I have also been pretty harsh on Mac Jones but that won’t change. At the end of the day, he’s still an Alabama QB being carried by the greatest head coach of all-time and his brilliant defense.
If the Bills can go out and score 24+ points, I don’t think the Patriots can keep up. They want to run the ball and play the ball control game, but Buffalo knows that and should be prepared. Thank goodness for the return of the Manning Cast because I will need their comedic relief for this one. I’m not gonna lie, I’m rooting for the Bills because Tennessee beat them so they’ll have the tiebreaker at season’s end. It may be our bye, but they stay in my heart at all times.
That does it for Week 13. It has been on that for the most part I flew through but as always there are games that give me cause for concern. It just goes to show, when you truly love something, it’s never all smooth sailing. Even now, I want to go and say Herbert gets this W but my resolve of Team over Scheme is resolute. I can’t wait to watch some unattached football this week and see who comes to perform.
Thanks again to Jovan Cutler and Tiger Communications for giving me a platform and making me look good.
Make sure to tune in from 6pm-10pm to The Bear Den on 99.9 Kate FM as there will be some big changes coming very soon. Download the Tiger Communications App to stay up to date on everything going down and remember, stay humble… even when you don’t want to.
