“All my life, all I wanted to do was be great.” Dave Chappelle
This morning, I found myself listening to Dime Trap as I reflected on not just this NFL season but 2021 as a whole. That Minnesota Fall breeze has finally hit the Alabama air and it got me feeling ambitious. The only constant in life is change but music has a way of making you feel grounded. Last week I wrote about being humbled and it seems at least a few NFL teams went through that same lesson over the weekend.
Vikings faithful now understand that there are no sure things, Bills fans are still attempting to understand what transpired on Monday night, the 49ers were reminded that it’s not how you start but how you finish, and as for Baltimore…while I respect the risk, you should be very weary of challenging a team’s like Pittsburgh best unit to a big boy competition. I believe Mike Tomlin echoed that same sentiment in his post-game comments.
“They aggressively play analytics. So from that standpoint, they’re predictable.”
I loved this quote because it exposes a trend that far too many professionals are espousing. They believe a computer algorithm to be wiser than human instinct. I myself allowed the statistics to subdue me far too many times this season with the most recent example being me going against my gut to pick the Bengals over Chargers last week. I had actually written what I felt, then went back and altered it.
There’s no excuse because the past is the past but I loved the outcome because it instilled me with the confidence that I lacked. I had been searching for that sweet spot between humble and hubris for so long and to finally be present is a sweet gift from the Football Gods.
Hubris has been both my mortal enemy and primary benefactor for as long as I can remember. I’ve been called arrogant more times than I can count and never saw what the issue was until I started writing this article. My pure, unadulterated love/respect for the NFL showed me that I am not the guru I saw myself as and that I was fallible like the rest of humanity. It also showed me that neither were the individuals who are paid millions to do the same thing I am doing. Analytics and a paycheck couldn’t predict Mac Jones going 2/3 for 19 yards against Buffalo on the road and leaving with a win.
Now, there’s one difference between myself and these so-called “experts”. I am allowed to mature. I’m not hindered by my organizational obligations to make sure I’m selling the narratives of my financial backers. Every day I tune in to these worn out storylines and platitudes that seem to be programmed into these analysts and can’t help but feel sorry for the viewers who are unaware of the BS they are consuming. I will not name names but after I do something they can only dream of, I’m coming for all their necks. The more things change, the more bums stay the same.
Vikings win *heavy sigh*
Why?
I had Arizona -7 ½, Colts -10, Rams -14, Bucs money-line, and…… Vikings money-line. I had literally told my guy this was the week I hit my first parlay. I sat there and watched what I considered the safest choice in my bet: play the worst coverage I have ever seen and allow an Egyptian Sun God to score as time expired and destroy my spirit in the process.
If I haven’t mentioned before, I’d spent the previous 14 years in Minnesota watching this team choke but I guess, no I know I’m hard-headed. All I could hear was my grandma’s words echoing in my brain, “A hard head makes for a soft ass”. My ass is currently play-doh.
I’m picking the Vikings because Kirk Cousins has done his job all season. No one can blame him or this Vikings offense for the shambles this organization finds themselves in. They lot Thielen early, no Dalvin Cook, and still were able to score when it counted. It’s looking like Cook makes his return tonight along with Anthony Barr, Eric Kendricks, and CB Patrick Peterson. The Steelers still have Big Ben under center and them beating Baltimore last week only prompts the Vikings team that plays well against “good teams”. It’ll be close, AND WHILE MY MONEY WON’T BE, my faith is with Captain Kirk on Thursday night.
On to Sunday where divisional matchups get gritty.
Panthers scrape by Falcons.
Why?
I still have faith in my boy Cam. His last outing was abysmal but Miami has a defense Atlanta can only dream of at this juncture. While they may be without CBs Jaycee Horn and Donte Jackson, the acquisitions of Stephon Gilmore and CJ Henderson more than makes up for the losses. Along with breakout safety Jeremy Chinn, Carolina’s front seven is still in the top half of the league while Atlanta doesn’t have much outside Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts.
I give Atlanta the coaching edge with Arthur Smith and Dean Pees starting to figure things out but there’s too a clear talent differential on these two squads, even with the absence of Christian McCaffrey. I expect this to be an exciting game for both fan bases as technically speaking, both teams still have an outside chance at playoffs. But without a sudden Calvin Ridley appearance, Advantage Panthers at home.
Chiefs stomp Raiders.
Why?
I don’t have many words regarding this matchup. I do believe in NFL conspiracy theories and one storyline I have always backed is Patrick Mahomes must be in the playoffs. There’s too much money involved in the NFL’s poster boy and while Las Vegas is a great market, Derek Carr and the Raiders just don’t have the same marketability.
Vegas also lost Kenyon Drake, Darren Waller is still on the mend, and DeSean Jackson is no Henry Ruggs III as a deep threat in 2021. So expect another week of Nick Wright slobbering all over KC’s defense and how once the offense figures it out, they’ll be the easy Super Bowl favorites. Gross ☹
Cleveland runs over Ravens.
Why?
I am of the contingent that this Pittsburgh loss pretty much ends the Ravens season. Now I’m not saying they can’t make the playoffs, but I can’t see them making it past the first round. They lost All-star CB Marlon Humphrey for the season and were already without CB Marcus Peters. Calais Campbell is still not practicing and they get a rested Cleveland Browns team off their bye week. Baltimore has scrapped all season and gotten some tough and some might say, lucky wins throughout. This is not a team they want to face currently and because of that loss against Pittsburgh, it’s become a must-win.
Their next three games are against the Packers, Bengals, and Rams so if they go into those games 2nd in the division with only a half-game lead on Pittsburgh and Cleveland… it’s pretty much a wrap in my book. It’s all up to Lamar Jackson and whether he can reach beyond his MVP season potential to carry this team to the postseason and beyond. That’s a lot to ask but after what I saw Monday night, hell I’m open to anything.
Then you have Cleveland and their QB situation. Baker Mayfield is the X-factor for this team and while I think they should roll with Keenum for the remainder of the season, Kevin Stefanski is sticking with his guy. I fully expect a heavy dosage of Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb against a reeling Baltimore defense and although that should be good enough this week, there’s no playoff run to be had unless Mayfield can make critical throws late. I truly want to have faith in this talented Brown’s unit but they may sadly be held back by their QB position just like Pittsburgh.
Boy, this AFC North is a conundrum. Thankfully, that’s not the case in the AFC South.
Titans get back on track against Jacksonville!
Why?
The Jaguars are always there when we need them most!
Tennessee is coming off bye after two tough losses versus the Houston Texans and New England Patriots. We need a bounce back game to regain some of that mid-season confidence and enter Jacksonville. Now I have respect for their defensive front and our O-line is not the top of the league, but we did find something that New England defeated. Both D’Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard rushed for over 100 yards. We also get back Jeremy McNichols and elevated former Indianapolis RB Jordan Wilkins. Mac Jones was correct about one thing when he said it “takes a village”. Especially to replace a man like Derrick Henry.
We also might get back our inside linebackers Rashaan Evans and David Long to shore up the middle of that defense. However, the biggest return may be Julio Jones who started practicing this week. Any semblance of an outside WR presence should help Tannehill cut down on those INTs and get the offense back to a healthy balance. I fully expect our defense to do its job against that Jacksonville rushing attack and cause some turnovers. If our offense takes care of the ball and eats away that clock, Tennessee will easily get back in the win column.
The last noon divisional game is my toughest call yet as well as the most anticipated.
Washington can’t quite wrangle Dallas.
Why?
This game here is one of those that will shock its viewers. I don’t believe it will be a high-scoring affair by any means. I honestly foresee a field goal separating these two teams when it all comes down to the wire. Washington’s defense has been playing phenomenally since losing its top two pass rushers in Montez Sweat and Chase Young. They were actually looking to get Sweat back this week before he tested positive for the Rona.
Both these teams RB room is banged up as JD McKissic is still recovering from a concussion and both Zeke/Pollard ended up on the Cowboys injury report. The JD injury is why I am giving the edge to Dallas in this contest because he provides a huge relief to Taylor Heinicke and Antonio Gibson. Dallas’ defense has been the most consistent part of their football team and I expect nothing different on Sunday.
Washington’s last five games are all divisional matchups including two against these Cowboys. I think once they get some key players back, they can take down the division leader but this gives this go round to the road team.
Saints ground Jets.
Why?
Alvin Kamara is back, baby! This Saints offense has been a shell of themselves in his four game absence and his return is exactly the spark needed to get them back in the playoff race. Now, I am not quite sure what their QB position is looking like since Taysom Hill has a bum finger, but even Trevor Siemian is enough to take down the dilapidated Jets. New York lost their #1 WR Corey Davis for the year, rookie RB Michael Carter is still out, and breakout WR Elijah Moore isn’t practicing along with backup Tevin Coleman.
The Saints defense has been steady throughout, minus some so-so games along the way. This is just what the doctor ordered for a team looking to fix some mistakes and get back right on both sides of the ball. It also helps those fantasy owners looking to get a much needed playoff win as Mark Ingram’s addition to the COVID list means it’s Kamara’s backfield all to himself. Rejoice Saints fans, Christmas is here early!
The Seahawks beat down Texans.
Why?
Russell Wilson is returning to form folks. He went 30/37 for over 230 yards and 2 TDS in route to taking down a red hot 49ers team last week. He got DK involved and started building chemistry with rookie Dwayne Eskridge late. That is a nightmare for the rest of the NFL as Seattle with a three-headed monster at WR is almost impossible to game plan for.
Houston on the other hand is coming off a 0-31 scrubbing at the hands of the Indianapolis Colts. They weren’t able to muster anything in any phase and eventually ended up benching Tyrod Taylor for rookie Davis Mills. I’m not sure who is playing QB this week but it won’t make a difference. Even with S Jamal Adams out for the year, I don’t expect Houston’s offense to be able to score with DangeRuss nor Houston’s defense to put up much of a fight. The long, sad season continues for 1st year head coach David Culley and this Texans organization destined for a complete overhaul in the offseason. Just make sure to send Deshaun to the NFC.
For the 3pm quartet, allow me to preface it by saying run games will be rampant.
Denver gut punches Detroit!
Why?
What a scene last week on Ford Field. It was a sight to behold as Jared Goff embraced head coach Dan Campbell after a game winning TD with no time left on the clock. Campbell admirably dedicated the game ball to the victims of the Oxford High school shooting and showed all of Michigan he was the right man to coach this football team.
Now back to our regularly scheduled programming. Denver is about to run over this team. Javonte Williams had a season high 178 scrimmage yards against Kansas City last week and Melvin Gordon is looking like he’s good to go as well. Denver is not Minnesota and will play their game regardless of the opponent. Detroit has struggled to stop the run game all season and with Teddy two gloves taking care of the football, I expect this one to be over at half.
Chargers squeeze by New York.
Why?
The Ronies take no prisoners. Just ask the Los Angeles Chargers and they’ll tell you what’s up. Both their top two WRs Kennan Allen and Mike Williams are infected along with CB Chris Harris. Hopefully Asante Samuel Jr can get back on the field this week to help shore up that secondary, but the offense will undoubtedly suffer and need some extra defensive help.
Perhaps if Danny Dimes were available, it would be a prime opportunity for the Giants to steal a game and make their season more commendable, but that’s not the reality. Analysts are unsure if it’ll be Mike Glennon or QB Jake Fromm under center for this bout and neither inspire much confidence.
New York has been an inept offensive unit this year and the QB inconsistency is the main culprit, followed by the slew of WR injuries they’ve endured. It really overshadows how well this defense has been performing for a second year in a row. I expect a low-scoring affair but Justin Herbert is so good there’s no way they contain him for 4 quarters. Chargers stay on the Chiefs heels for a photo finish in the AFC West.
San Francisco versus Cincinnati- healthiest team wins.
Why?
This one is a toughie. Both these teams have injuries at key positions which at this juncture would tilt the game in either direction. For the Bengals sides, both Joe Mixon and Joe Burrows aren’t practicing. Mixon is ailing from an illness that reporters say is non-COVID related. Joe Burrow suffered a finger injury that briefly sidelined him last week and has a knee injury to boot.
Then in the San Francisco corner, Elijah Mitchell was placed in concussion protocol Monday after exhibiting symptoms following Sunday’s loss and Deebo Samuel is still not practicing after missing last week’s game with a groin injury. That’s too many question marks to make an educated guess with so I will instead give some hypotheticals.
If everyone I mentioned here ends up playing, my instinct tells me the 49ers get the win. Joe Burrow seemed off last week and I don’t think that gets better in just a week. Micthell and Samuel completely change this 49er’s offense so if they suit up, the Bengals would need to be able to put up points to keep toe to toe. Now if either Mitchell of Samuel is absent, I’m team Cincinnati. Joe Mixon is the guy I’m sure will play and play well so if the score is kept lower, which I expect would be the case were San Fran missing one of their heavy hitters, then Joe Mixon could carry the load and his team to victory. It’s crucial as both these teams are in need of a win after tough losses last week so everyone will be pushing to play. I will have a more certain answer once Sunday’s final injury report rolls around. Stay tuned.
The last 3pm game should be the highest scoring by far. Take the over!
Bucs outscore Bills.
Why?
I have no idea what Buffalo is feeling but I do know they are ready to let loose after Monday’s cold fiasco. Buffalo’s defense played well despite being without their best player. I suppose it wouldn’t have made much of a difference seeing as said player is a CB. However, White will be sorely missed Sunday when Mike Evans and Chris Godwin hit the field. Buffalo has fallen to the 7 seed in the AFC so it’s do or die time for them. Then you have the Brady led Buccaneers whom have found their rhythm with Leonard Fournette slaughtering opponents over the past 3 weeks.
This is the game where whoever has the ball last will decide the outcome and somehow Brady seems to be that guy majority of the time. Both these football teams were Super Bowl favorites at one point this season so it’s a real treat for us fans to get such a juicy matchup late in the regular season. I’ going with Tampa because they have a more balanced attack on offense and can therefore keep Josh Allen off the field. The Bills are coming off a game where the Patriots ran it nearly 50 times so will obviously be a little bruised up. Expect a heavy dosage of playoff Lenny combined with a Gronk TD and Buffalo is back in the middle of the pack fighting for its playoff life.
Sunday night has the old man versus the new rook. It’ll be more exciting than people expect but..
Rodgers shines in win over Chicago.
Why?
He owns them, that’s why. Rodgers seems to go to another level when he plays Chicago and this one will be in primetime. The Packers have started to enter playoff form with a bullish run game to complement Rodgers aerial assault. No Khalil Mack spells an evening where Chicago will absolutely need to score points in order to make this competitive.
Now, Justin Fields is scheduled to return from injury for this game and that is what makes this so interesting. We’ve seen Fields shine versus a top defensive unit earlier this year when he played Pittsburgh and I have an inkling that he will come out firing Sunday night. Of course, he’ll need David Montgomery healthy and rolling but I also feel he’ll recover in time.
While I foresee a Green Bay victory, division games in the NFC North always have a way of some uncertain factor influencing the flow and Justin Fields feels like that factor. I can’t wait to see how he handles a fully healthy Green Bay defense with Jaire Alexander and Zadarius Smith returning from injury but it will show Chicago what’s in store for the future of their franchise.
Who knows, this time next year, they may sport the best QB in the division with tonight being his coming out party.
The final game of the week is another Divisional matchup where playoff seeding starts to settle.
Cardinals subdue Rams!
Why?
Kyler Murray didn’t miss a beat. The young man came right back and picked up where he left off, accounting for 4 total TDs and a 33-22 victory over Chicago. DeAndre Hopkins returned with him and had a TD of his own on a day where Murray only threw 15 times and no one had over 2 receptions. This game is by far the biggest of the week as the Rams are battling to maintain their playoff spot while attempting to catch these Cardinals. A loss here clinches a spot for Arizona while effectively ending the Rams catches at a division title.
I’m rolling with Arizona because Murray looks like he’s unstoppable. This Rams defense hasn’t been what people expected after the acquisition of Von Miller and the Cardinals might also get back RB Chase Edmonds to give Murray his full complement of receiving options. Losing Robert Woods was a bigger hit than most foreseen and with Odell hobbling as well as RB Darrell Henderson trending downward, It’s all up to Stafford to create magic and keep up with Arizona’s pace.
Also, Arizona’s defense has quietly been a consistent unit. They’re getting off the field, creating turnovers, and playing stingy in coverage. If they keep it up, the NFC will be going through Glendale for sure.
That’s all she wrote (another great T.I song) for Week 14. Thanks again to Jovan Cutler and Tiger Communications for allowing me to be great and deliver this quality content. Make sure to down our app for updates as we continue to expand our offering.
Happy Holidays to everyone and may your team bring you all the joy the season provides!
