By Brant Daughtry
I honestly don’t know what to say at this point. At every turn, this team is finding new and exciting ways to lose very winnable games. Whether it’s turning the ball over way too much, or a defense that can’t hold up in big moments, or an offense that’s incapable to move the ball consistently. Every part of this team collapses at the most inopportune times.
Let’s talk about the offense. Early in the year, the message was, if Auburn can stop turning the ball over, the offense will start putting up points. Well, the offense has stopped the large majority of its turnover problem, and the offense still can’t move the ball. Auburn had 12 drives against Missouri, a defense that’s certainly not at the top of the SEC, and failed to gain a first down on six of those drives. Literally half the time, Auburn was 3-and-out or a turnover on downs. Turnovers don’t account for that level of failure. That’s not isolated to this game either. Looking back at all of Auburn’s Power 5 games, their offense routinely fails to move the ball at all. If the multiple turnovers against Cal and Arkansas caused those losses, fine. But the Oklahoma and Missouri games were MOSTLY turnover free, and this offense still can’t get it done.
There are some bright spots. Explosive plays still happen. Your most talented players are still young. But overall, there’s no sustainability to this offense. I’m not sure I see that changing just because the players get better. Auburn’s offense managed to scrape a whole 10 points off of Missouri, and even with the missed red zone opportunity in the third quarter, this level of output isn’t going to work.
This is hurtling towards another lost season of Auburn football. And it’s becoming an all-too-familar refrain. Welcome to the worst stretch in program history.
Kentucky is also in a bit of a slump. Their head coach, Mark Stoops, has done a great job over his 12-year stretch of raising the floor of the program, and now holds several school records. That said, this season has been something of a roller coaster. The Wildcats are 3-4 and 1-3 in conference play. That’s not the best record, but they played Georgia to a one-point game and their win came over an Ole Miss team that’s been kind of disappointing but I’d still consider good. But those losses are by three points to an admittedly good Vanderbilt, and drubbings by South Carolina and Florida. They’re a strange and unpredictable team.
In the past, their offense was known for the old school, I-formation power run game. They’ve become a little more modern this year, lining up in the shotgun more and usually having three wide receivers on the field. But make no mistake, this thing still goes as the power run game goes. Lots of pulling lineman and runs up the middle. Their passing game is heavily built off the play-action, and they’ve done well creating explosive plays with that this year. They also attempt to confuse defenses with a TON of pre-snap motion, so discipline and composure will be tested Saturday.
Their quarterback is Brock Vandagriff, a Georgia transfer that’s been decent. He’s not a world beater, but he’s smart and talented enough to keep them in games. The TD-INT ratio hasn’t been great though, 6-to-4, so he’s had some trouble getting them across the finish line. They will bring in the backup occasionally, Gavin Wimsatt. He’s more of a runner than a passer, but he’s a big dude who moves well, and we’ve seen that give Auburn trouble this season.
Defensively, they take a page from most modern defenses. A 3-3 look that’s functionally a 4-2. Three big guys with their hand in the dirt, and an athlete off the outside responsible for setting the edge or rushing the passer. They do more with that edge than just rush though, they’ll let him drop into coverage and rush three, or bring the fourth rusher from elsewhere. That pre-snap to post-snap movement is something Auburn has had a lot of trouble with lately, so they’ll need to be ready coming into this one. In the secondary, they are big and physical. Of their starting DB’s, non are shorter than 6-1, and they use that size to matchup well with bigger receivers like Auburn’s.
Players to Watch For:
Wide Receiver Dane Key, #6- Key is the leading receiver for Kentucky, almost doubling up second place. He’s got 500 yards and 2 touchdowns on the year, and he’s averaging about 71 yards per game. He’s a big body, 6-3, 210 pounds, so Auburn will have to deal with an intimidating player.
Linebacker D’Eryk Jackson, #54- This front seven for Kentucky is really good, and Jackson is at the dead middle of it. He’s your standard inside linebacker and has benefited from a lot of the very strong play of the defensive line in front of him. To that end, he’s leading the team with 37 tackles and has 5 TFL’s on the year. It’s less that he’s an awesome play-maker, and more that he cleans up whenever someone else forces an offensive play to break down. But he can make some plays on his own too, and Auburn will need to be aware of him.
Kentucky isn’t very good. Auburn is the more talented roster by a good bit, and their two good performances against Georgia and Ole Miss feel like outliers. Those performances against South Carolina and Florida, to me at least, feel more like who they actually are. This could be another winnable game for Auburn. I don’t know what to expect though. In winnable games, Auburn’s found a bunch of ways to lose.
