By Brant Daughtry
Finally, progress.
Auburn had an opportunity to go grab an SEC win, and it finally did the darn thing. Jarquez Hunter had the game of his Auburn career, and the offense looked good once they began to feature the best player on the field. 273 yards on 23 carries will always look good, especially in a conference game.
Now unfortunately, I have to rain on the parade a little bit. That 1st quarter was still bad. Freeze continues to lean heavily on Payton Thorne to be the engine of the offense when he’s so clearly not that guy. He’s an average quarterback at best, and trusting him to win a game for you isn’t going to work. Once the running game became the focus, Thorne had a great rest of the game.
I feel the need also to caution fans about their optimism. Kentucky’s run defense has been solid statistically, but that’s not because their front seven is full of world beaters. Most people are able to throw for 300 yards against that secondary, so they ignore the running game in favor of that, which Auburn tried to do initially. This is not, to me, a sign that Auburn will suddenly become a top-10 offense and Jarquez Hunter will be the best running back in the country.
But it is a win! And a very important one. Auburn won’t be winless in the SEC, and that’s major for momentum heading down the home stretch. With that said, there might be a chance for a major upset on Saturday.
Vanderbilt is coached by Clark Lea, former Notre Dame defensive coordinator and very old fashioned defensive guy. He took over defensive coordinator duties this season, and that’s led to a solid group. He runs a 4-2-5 scheme, with that nickel position being able to play as a linebacker if necessary. They’re not trying to fool you, maybe every now and then they’ll show or send blitzes, but most of it is on base execution.
Offensively, they run an RPO scheme that’s a little more run-heavy than Auburn’s. Include the quarterback in that. Diego Pavia, a name we all know by now, is the engine here, but don’t think that means they’ll throw it 50 times. They use him in the run game and rely on him making plays on the outside, and in fact, he’s the team’s leading rusher.
Typically, it’s 11 personal, but they’ll bring in different packages as the situation dictates. There’s lots of pre-snap motion as well, which factors into their reads. It’s a tough offense to stop, as option-style offenses always are. It’s built on making sure that at least one player is always wrong, as long as the quarterback makes the right reads, and Pavia can do it with the best of them.
Players to Watch For:
Tight End Eli Stowers, #9- Stowers is another guy who transferred from New Mexico State, and that familiarity with Pavia is easy to see. He leads the team in receiving yards this year, and while the raw numbers aren’t super impressive because of how much they spread the ball around, he’s dangerous. He scored a touchdown against Auburn last year and accounted for over 50 yards, so they should know what he can do.
EDGE Miles Capers, #29- Capers is the engine that makes Vandy run. He leads the team in tackles for loss, even though he’s missed a game this year. He does a little bit of everything for this team, having multiple sacks this season but also an interception and a couple of deflections. He was named SEC Defensive Player of the Week after his strip-sack against Alabama, so he knows how to come up in big moments.
This was probably the hardest “Players to Watch For” I’ve ever had to write. Not because there aren’t any good players, there are several. The thing is, Vanderbilt plays such good team ball. There’s no one guy on either side of the ball that’s truly dominant, except one. Diego Pavia is that guy. He can single-handedly keep this team in games that they’re severely overmatched in, as he showed against Alabama and this past week against Texas.
This team is weird to predict. Vanderbilt is a better team than Auburn, and having a much better season. But they don’t blow you away either. This bunch lost to Georgia State in Atlanta a few weeks ago, but they can hang with the best teams in the country as well. If it means anything to you, they played Kentucky to a tight win while Auburn blew them out a week ago.
Overall, there’s one statistic about Hugh Freeze that he has a chance to overcome this weekend. He still hasn’t beaten an FBS team that finished with a losing record since taking the Auburn job. Closest Auburn came was with Cal last season, but the 2023 Bears finished 6-6 in the regular season. Vandy’s going to better than that, and while they’ve had their moments, they’re still a beatable team. It’s going to take more than handing it off to Jarquez Hunter 30 times though, I don’t think that game plan beats this bunch. Auburn is the more talented team. I’m not sure how much of a difference that makes this week though.
