The Falcons made a splash in this year’s draft, unexpectedly taking quarterback Michael Penix with the 8th overall pick. Given the recent signing of quarterback Kirk Cousins, the selection is a massive gamble. If it works, you look like a genius. If Penix doesn’t become a quality starter at the end of the Cousins contract, it could very well cost many on the Falcons’ staff their jobs.
For this though, I’ll be looking at every pick the Falcons made in the draft, including Penix, and giving my thoughts as well as grading the pick. I’ll look at how much of a need the player was at the position, the value of that player for when they were taken, and how much of a contributor I think they’ll be. Let’s get into it.
Round 1:
Pick 8: Michael Penix Jr.- Quarterback, Washington
The biggest splash of the first round, and for all the wrong reasons. Part of the thought process makes sense. You sign Kirk Cousins to a deal that could last somewhere between two and four years, and don’t expect to draft this high again for a while. You need to go ahead and grab a guy who you feel like can be your future if there’s high-end talent available. There’s a few problems with this line of thinking though.
The first is that Penix is already 24 years old, pretty up there in age for a rookie. In the shortest Cousins scenario, he’ll be 26 when he takes his first snaps as a starter. The other is that Penix is a good-not-great prospect, and probably not worth the 8th overall pick. QB was at a premium this year, and Penix was the 4th off the board by that point. He may end up being great, but there’s less guarantee than there is with the other QB’s that were taken. This could end up being a massive reach.
The third and perhaps most egregious flaw is this. The Falcons have made so many win-now moves this off-season. The signing of Kirk Cousins says more than anything that you plan on at least winning an incredibly weak NFC South this year and make the playoffs. However, on draft day, with the 8th overall pick, with a plethora of players available who can help you win immediately, you made a pick that makes it clear you’re planning for the future. It’s an entirely different line of thinking than the Falcons have demonstrated to this point, and as a fan, it’s confusing.
This pick could end up being an A five years down the line. It could end up being an F. For now, I have to go towards the lower end of the spectrum given Penix won’t see the field for a while.
Grade: C-
Round 2:
Pick 35: Ruke Orhorhoro- Defensive Tackle, Clemson
The Falcons clearly feel strongly about Orhorhoro, as they traded away two second round picks to move up for him. This is another move that’s a little bit of a head-scratcher, at least given the way the draft was expected to play out. Orhorhoro probably would’ve been available if the Falcons had stayed put where they were, and they could’ve held on to their other second rounder.
The move aside, I like the player. Defensive lineman from Clemson usually end up pretty good, Grady Jarret being the prime example. He’s incredibly raw as a football player, as he didn’t play football until his junior year of high school. His athletic upside is tremendous though. Being 295 pounds and being able to run a 4.89 40 is unusual. His Relative Athletic Score (RAS) came in at 9.2 on a scale of 10. That’s the 18th best score for a DT since RAS started being used in 1987.
He’s a little light, but versatile, with great size and length, with room to grow. It’s cliché, but he’s a high-motor guy who was loved by coaches. This staff thinks they’ll be able to coach him up and turn him into an elite do-everything interior defensive lineman. The trade-up knocks this pick down a bit for me, but overall, not bad.
Grade: B-
Round 3
Pick 74: Bralen Trice- EDGE, Washington
Second straight D-line pick of the draft, and not the last. I really like this pick. Trice isn’t blowing anyone away, but he’s a relentless edge rusher who gave the PAC-12 fits over its last three seasons. 18 sacks isn’t crazy, but his pressure number are insane, leading the country in that particular stat. If he can figure out getting the QB to ground, he’ll be a really solid edge rusher. He already plays the run pretty well. He could be an immediate major part of an Atlanta pass rush that’s been historically bad over the last decade or so.
Grade: B+
Round 4
Pick 109: Brandon Dorlus- Defensive Tackle, Oregon
The last on this run of defensive lineman for Atlanta, and probably my favorite pick of the draft. Dorlus is a super versatile defensive tackle, and while he doesn’t have the athletic upside that Orhorhoro has, he’s a more finished product. He’s going to contribute early and adds excellent depth to a d-line that needs it. If he continues to improve further, he and Orhorhoro could end up being game plan wreckers for a long time.
Grade: A
Round 5
Pick 143: JD Bertrand, Linebacker, Notre Dame
Adding depth to the linebacker room. Atlanta is in a good spot with linebacker I think, but they’ve added a quality rotation player with Bertrand. He’s led Notre Dame in tackles for the past three seasons, and was a captain the last two. He’s probably not going to blow anyone away, his lack of athleticism is going to limit what can be asked of him, but he’s a sure tackler and a smart player. He’s also earned a reputation as a great locker room presence. More great value for the timing of the pick.
Grade: B
Round 6
Pick 186: Jase McClellan, Running Back, Alabama
Round 6 begins more of the gambling period. Rather than taking players you expect to be big contributors, you’re going at guys you think can be quality depth in case of an injury or might be able to step in on special teams. I think McClellan fits that bill. He’s probably not going to see the field on offense barring an injury to Bijan Robinson or Tyler Allgeier, but he’s a great athlete from a program who knows how to spit out good players. Look for him on special teams.
Grade: B
Pick 187: Casey Washington, Wide Receiver, Illinois
Not a lot to get super excited about here, but Washington is decent size for a slot guy and comes with great hands. He was only a full-time starter for a year, but that was a very productive year. Atlanta needs more receivers, and Washington adds a quality piece. Another guy who might contribute, but could be more of a special teams guy.
Grade: B-
Pick 197: Zion Logue, Defensive Tackle, Georgia
Logue was more of a depth piece than a starter at UGA, and the hope is that he’ll do the same for Atlanta. The Dawgs have pretty much had an NFL d-line for the past few years anyway, so it’s not the worst thing. If nothing else, he’s got NFL size coming in at 6’5″, 315 lbs. He’s a project piece nose tackle at best, and it’ll probably be a struggle for him to make the roster. But, it does throw a bone to the hometown Georgia fans.
Grade: C
Overall, the Falcons had a decent draft, especially with those three defensive lineman in the middle rounds. The pick of Penix at the top though will be what eventually writes the story of this draft. In the meantime though, you’ve at least picked up some quality depth inside, and an edge rusher who should be a major player next season. If Penix turns into a quality starter, this could be the start of several great years for Atlanta.
